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Capturing movement importance - logistic regression output


Logistic Regression implementation does not convergeMulti-class logistic regressionEquation for likelihood in logistic regressionOutput data from scikit learn logistic regressionSimple logistic regression wrong predictionsQuestion about Logistic RegressionLogistic Regression Independent SamplesRe: Logistic Regressionlogistic regressionLogistic regression in python













1












$begingroup$


I'm studying some event for a set of objects that can be plotted on a square $[0, 100] ^ 2$. I have used logistic regression to calculate probabilities that event occur for different objects and the output can be plotted as below:



enter image description here



We can observe a high density around point $(100, 50)$ and that basically the farther the less probable the event is. A distance to this point is one of the predictors, but there are also few others. What I'm interested in is to capture a potential movement, i.e. how valuable is to move from point A to point B. But I would like to reward also those movements which are made far from the point $(100, 50)$, not only those near to the point. And for the former the absolute increase in probability will be small even if a movement is pretty significant (long distance), while for the latter we can observe a large increase in probabilities even with a tiny move. So I think what I would need is to somehow nullify/smooth effect of distance from $(100, 50)$, i.e. make it less significant for calculating our movement gain. And I don't really know how to accomplish that. I can't calculate the percentage gain, because this results in a really large gains. I think I need some monotonic transformation that would make a large probabilities lower and low probabilities higher. Any ideas what I could apply here?










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    1












    $begingroup$


    I'm studying some event for a set of objects that can be plotted on a square $[0, 100] ^ 2$. I have used logistic regression to calculate probabilities that event occur for different objects and the output can be plotted as below:



    enter image description here



    We can observe a high density around point $(100, 50)$ and that basically the farther the less probable the event is. A distance to this point is one of the predictors, but there are also few others. What I'm interested in is to capture a potential movement, i.e. how valuable is to move from point A to point B. But I would like to reward also those movements which are made far from the point $(100, 50)$, not only those near to the point. And for the former the absolute increase in probability will be small even if a movement is pretty significant (long distance), while for the latter we can observe a large increase in probabilities even with a tiny move. So I think what I would need is to somehow nullify/smooth effect of distance from $(100, 50)$, i.e. make it less significant for calculating our movement gain. And I don't really know how to accomplish that. I can't calculate the percentage gain, because this results in a really large gains. I think I need some monotonic transformation that would make a large probabilities lower and low probabilities higher. Any ideas what I could apply here?










    share|improve this question











    $endgroup$




    bumped to the homepage by Community 17 mins ago


    This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.

















      1












      1








      1





      $begingroup$


      I'm studying some event for a set of objects that can be plotted on a square $[0, 100] ^ 2$. I have used logistic regression to calculate probabilities that event occur for different objects and the output can be plotted as below:



      enter image description here



      We can observe a high density around point $(100, 50)$ and that basically the farther the less probable the event is. A distance to this point is one of the predictors, but there are also few others. What I'm interested in is to capture a potential movement, i.e. how valuable is to move from point A to point B. But I would like to reward also those movements which are made far from the point $(100, 50)$, not only those near to the point. And for the former the absolute increase in probability will be small even if a movement is pretty significant (long distance), while for the latter we can observe a large increase in probabilities even with a tiny move. So I think what I would need is to somehow nullify/smooth effect of distance from $(100, 50)$, i.e. make it less significant for calculating our movement gain. And I don't really know how to accomplish that. I can't calculate the percentage gain, because this results in a really large gains. I think I need some monotonic transformation that would make a large probabilities lower and low probabilities higher. Any ideas what I could apply here?










      share|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      I'm studying some event for a set of objects that can be plotted on a square $[0, 100] ^ 2$. I have used logistic regression to calculate probabilities that event occur for different objects and the output can be plotted as below:



      enter image description here



      We can observe a high density around point $(100, 50)$ and that basically the farther the less probable the event is. A distance to this point is one of the predictors, but there are also few others. What I'm interested in is to capture a potential movement, i.e. how valuable is to move from point A to point B. But I would like to reward also those movements which are made far from the point $(100, 50)$, not only those near to the point. And for the former the absolute increase in probability will be small even if a movement is pretty significant (long distance), while for the latter we can observe a large increase in probabilities even with a tiny move. So I think what I would need is to somehow nullify/smooth effect of distance from $(100, 50)$, i.e. make it less significant for calculating our movement gain. And I don't really know how to accomplish that. I can't calculate the percentage gain, because this results in a really large gains. I think I need some monotonic transformation that would make a large probabilities lower and low probabilities higher. Any ideas what I could apply here?







      logistic-regression probability information-retrieval data-science-model






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      edited Sep 22 '18 at 15:26







      jakes

















      asked Sep 22 '18 at 12:38









      jakesjakes

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      287





      bumped to the homepage by Community 17 mins ago


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      bumped to the homepage by Community 17 mins ago


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          $begingroup$

          You can calculate a distance in Euclidean space.



          Given your specific goal, you can define a custom distance metric that would the equivalent of a hinge loss. For the most of the space, distance is not defined because the probabilities can be thresholded to zero. For a small section of space near (100, 50), there is a linear or nonlinear distance defined.



          An alternative is to switch classifier to a support vector machine (SVM) with a hinge loss which would more directly model your problem.






          share|improve this answer











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            1 Answer
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            1 Answer
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            active

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            active

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            0





            +50







            $begingroup$

            You can calculate a distance in Euclidean space.



            Given your specific goal, you can define a custom distance metric that would the equivalent of a hinge loss. For the most of the space, distance is not defined because the probabilities can be thresholded to zero. For a small section of space near (100, 50), there is a linear or nonlinear distance defined.



            An alternative is to switch classifier to a support vector machine (SVM) with a hinge loss which would more directly model your problem.






            share|improve this answer











            $endgroup$

















              0





              +50







              $begingroup$

              You can calculate a distance in Euclidean space.



              Given your specific goal, you can define a custom distance metric that would the equivalent of a hinge loss. For the most of the space, distance is not defined because the probabilities can be thresholded to zero. For a small section of space near (100, 50), there is a linear or nonlinear distance defined.



              An alternative is to switch classifier to a support vector machine (SVM) with a hinge loss which would more directly model your problem.






              share|improve this answer











              $endgroup$















                0





                +50







                0





                +50



                0




                +50



                $begingroup$

                You can calculate a distance in Euclidean space.



                Given your specific goal, you can define a custom distance metric that would the equivalent of a hinge loss. For the most of the space, distance is not defined because the probabilities can be thresholded to zero. For a small section of space near (100, 50), there is a linear or nonlinear distance defined.



                An alternative is to switch classifier to a support vector machine (SVM) with a hinge loss which would more directly model your problem.






                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$



                You can calculate a distance in Euclidean space.



                Given your specific goal, you can define a custom distance metric that would the equivalent of a hinge loss. For the most of the space, distance is not defined because the probabilities can be thresholded to zero. For a small section of space near (100, 50), there is a linear or nonlinear distance defined.



                An alternative is to switch classifier to a support vector machine (SVM) with a hinge loss which would more directly model your problem.







                share|improve this answer














                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer








                edited Sep 30 '18 at 19:46

























                answered Sep 30 '18 at 19:33









                Brian SpieringBrian Spiering

                4,3531129




                4,3531129



























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